Kentucky Derby Picks

Even though I no longer bet, I did glance at the past performances for the Kentucky Derby tomorrow. For what it is is worth, these are the horses I believe have a chance to win, with program number/post position and morning line odds. I see one of the following three horses winning:

6 (15/1) - Z Fortune

19 (15/1) - Gayego

20 (3/1) -Big Brown

Here are some facts. In the 133-year history of the Derby, only 1 horse has won from a post position of 19 or higher (of course, many Derbies have had fewer than 19 horses running - nonetheless). It also has been 93 years since a horse has won with only 3 starts (Big Brown). So I think we can throw out Big Brown as the winner particularly as he will be going off at pretty short odds. He is a remarkable horse, and he could win, he just is too risky at the price he will return.

If I had to pick one horse, I would pick Z Fortune, who has a favorable post position. He can drop in on the rail and close, which typically favors Derby horses. There is a lot of early speed in this field, and they tend to wear each other down, opening up opportunities for a closer down the long stretch at Churchill Downs. Z Fortune will go off at a nice price and is peaking at the right time.

If you want to play an exacta or trifecta, I would put Z Fortune 1st and 2nd with the 19 and 20 horses, and then put 2,5,9,10,12, and 18 for 3rd place.

So if someone had a mythical $100 to bet, I would do it this way:

$40 Win - 6

$5 Exacta - 6 with 19,20 ($10)

$5 Exacta - 19,20 with 6 ($10)

$2 Exacta - 6 with 2,5,9,10,12,18 ($12)

$1 Trifecta - 6 with 19,20 with 2,5,9,10,12,18,19,20 ($14)

$1 Trifecta - 19,20 with 6 with 2,5,9,10,12,18,19,20 ($14)

Of course, this does not represent any recommendation that anyone else bet on this race. Horse racing is not for the faint of heart. I am mostly just opening myself for ridicule when Z Fortune finishes last.